FSU CFP snub is having a massive butterfly effect

As if there wasn't enough change already, let's rock a premier conference

On Thursday, reports began to swirl that FSU has formally begun the process of leaving the ACC. Amongst all the change that is headed for college football, FSU leaving the ACC would be a massive domino to fall.

Of course, FSU’s desire to leave the ACC was kickstarted after being snubbed by the College Football Playoff Committee. There’s a multitude of reasons why the Seminoles were left out of the playoffs — whether they’re valid or not — and amongst those reasons is their 55th ranked strength of schedule.

While the committee’s primary reason for the FSU snub is injuries at the quarterback position, their strength of schedule and the overall down year for the ACC doesn’t help. It’s hard to say that if any other power five champion was on their third string quarterback that they’d be left out of the playoffs.

FSU beat a top-15 10-2 Louisville team in the ACC title game and got virtually no credit for it. Whether that lack of national respect for Louisville is right or wrong, beating a 10-win team for an ACC title should be worth something. If that win is not going to be seen as worth anything then what’s the point of considering the ACC a power five conference?

While FSU leaving the ACC won’t cause the entire conference to dissolve, other power houses will likely look to leave and the conference will be significantly downgraded in terms of national relevance. A key difference between this and the mass exodus from the Pac-12 is that the Pac-12 collapse was primarily due to incompetent leadership and the lack of a TV deal. A potential ACC restructuring will be due to competition.

The Big XII is seemingly going to survive its marquee programs (Oklahoma and Texas) jumping ship for the SEC. The ACC will be facing an uphill battle if Clemson and Miami start to do some shopping for another home.

There’s no question that since the beginning of the BCS in 1998 the ACC has been second only to the SEC. The conference has as many national championships in that span as the B1G, Big XII and Pac-12 combined. Sure the ACC is not the deepest conference and, like every conference, usually only has one realistic title contender but that contender can always go toe-to-toe with any other team in the country.

The sad reality of is that while it’s justified, this is a knee-jerk reaction by FSU that will bring down a lot of solid middle-tier ACC schools. With the expansion of the playoffs coming there will be more room for teams in the ACC who aren’t necessarily power houses but will put together a strong year every 3 or 4 seasons.

The tough pill to swallow for FSU and its fans is that more often than not they are a team fighting for a 5-12 seed. 2023 was an exception. This 2023 FSU team was a mature team across the board with a weak schedule that I was high on from day one.

They should be in the playoffs but that doesn’t change the fact that most years FSU is and will be playing for a 5-12 seed. Does going 9-3 in the SEC fix that?

Championships since the BCS (1998):

• SEC - 15 across six schools

• ACC - 5 across three schools (FSU, Miami & Clemson)

• B1G - 2 both by Ohio State

• Big XII - 2 by Texas & Oklahoma (both leaving for the SEC)

• Pac-12 - 1 by USC (vacated)

All this leads to a more interesting Orange Bowl than anyone initially expected. FSU really has Georgia to blame for getting left out of the playoffs. Georgia’s loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship game opened the door for Alabama to make the playoffs and ultimately brought Texas along with them. If Georgia wins that game they’re likely playing FSU in the Sugar Bowl semifinal game rather than the Orange Bowl.

Georgia also flipped five-star KJ Bolden, the nation No. 1 safety, from FSU at the 11th hour during National Signing Day on Wednesday. FSU will have a shot at revenge against Georgia and prove to everyone that they deserved a spot in the playoffs. While neither team wants to be in the Orange Bowl, intriguing story lines are starting to pile up.

ACC 5-12 Seed Playoff Projections Since 2014:

• 2014: None

• 2015: Stanford*, UNC & FSU

• 2016: FSU

• 2017: Miami

• 2018: None

• 2019: None

• 2020: Notre Dame*

• 2021: None

• 2022: None

• 2023: FSU

*Stanford is a new ACC member starting in 2024 and Notre Dame played to 2020 season in the ACC due to Covid